Three-criterion diagnostic · field tool

Resilience Scenario Navigator

Set where you are and how far things have gone on the three criteria that separate a bad year from a collapse: the state's monopoly on violence, the delivery of basic services, and the functioning of communications. The tool classifies the scenario, sketches what it looks like from your doorstep, and lays out what to do, by domain and by week.

Place name

Settlement type

Region

Local conditions

Food mostly shipped in (short shelf stock) Hurricane, cyclone, wildfire or quake exposure Grid-tied with no backup power Household has an EV or home battery Strong local ties (know your neighbors) Dependents or daily prescription needs Own water source (catchment or well)

Monopoly on violence

IntactStrainedFailingGone

Basic services

IntactStrainedFailingGone

Communications

IntactStrainedFailingGone

Geographic scope

Tempo

Scenario ·

Timeline from the inflection point

3 · What to do

Model lens · how collapse theorists would read this

Pick a model to see what it predicts about tempo and what it says to watch. Models are lenses, not forecasts; most real cases show several at once.