Think B.I.G. Hawaiʻi · Energy Self-Reliance map · Statewide
How energy self-reliant is Hawaiʻi?
Renewables now make about 38% of the state’s electricity. But electricity is only part of the picture: counting every fuel, only about 12–14% of the energy used on each island comes from island sources. Compare the islands here, then open any one for its detailed map and simulator.
38%of the state’s electricity is renewable2025, share of generation
12%of all energy used statewide comes from island sources2025, every fuel counted
2,018MWh of batteries on the islands’ grids2025
2060when the state reaches 95% on the pathwaymodel projection
Hawaiʻi imports most of the energy it uses: oil for power plants, gasoline and diesel for cars and trucks, and fuel for ships and interisland flights. Renewables now supply about 38% of the state’s electricity, but electricity is only part of the picture. Counting every fuel, only about 11–14% of the energy used on each island comes from island sources.
This model tracks that bigger number, island by island, because it is the one that tells us how well each island could ride out a shock to fuel shipments.
Renewable share of the grid38%
Island-made share of all energy12%
Sheep keep the grass down under the La Ola Solar Farm on Lānaʻi. Photo: Merrill Smith, U.S. Department of Energy (public domain, source)
How the model works
Every fuel, in the same units
For each island the model starts from 2025 data, including utility renewable-energy reports and state fuel-tax records for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel. It converts every fuel to the same energy units, so electricity, transport, shipping, flights and industry can be added together.
A simple year-by-year model then adds the projects already under contract or out to bid, continued rooftop solar growth and gradual EV adoption, to show where today’s plans lead.
Pakini Nui Wind Farm at South Point, Big Island. Photo: Yoshi Canopus, CC BY-SA 4.0
Where it could go
What 95% would take
The 95% pathway goes further: faster solar and storage, firm renewable power, electrified industry, island-made fuels for boats and planes, and EV sales climbing along an S-curve, from today’s 14% of new cars to about 63% in 2035 and 91% in 2040.
Because cars stay on the road about 22 years, that last step sets the pace: on this path no island reaches 95% until 2060, and Kauaʻi and the Big Island not until after that. Faster EV sales plus trade-ins of old cars and island-made fuels could get there around 2040; the island pages let you try that.
On Oʻahu the pathway also counts on ocean energy: a 50 MW wave farm from 2038 and floating offshore wind in two 400 MW phases, in 2041 and 2044. Those offshore dates are deliberately cautious: no lease area has ever been named, and federal waters have been closed to new wind leasing since January 2025. With ocean energy, Oʻahu’s grid reaches the model’s 99% ceiling in 2041 instead of the early 2050s; switch it off on the map to compare. Every grid is capped at 99% renewable: we assume fuel-fired backup plants still supply at least 1% of each year’s electricity, and that every island keeps some backup for caution and diversity. These are planning sketches, not utility forecasts; each island page lists its assumptions and sources.
Illustration: floating offshore wind and a wave-energy buoy, the two ocean options in Oʻahu’s 95% pathway.
On the map, every major power plant is sized by capacity and colored by fuel, and each island shows its electric grid’s renewable share and its all-energy self-reliance. Play the history since 2005, the buildout on today’s plans, or the 95% pathway. Select an island to open its detailed map and a simulator where you choose what to build and how fast.
Renewable share of electricity, by island
2025
—
Statewide grid renewable
—
Statewide all-energy self-reliance
—
Grid batteries
—
Circles are power plants: area ∝ nameplate MW, colored by technology; dashed outlines are planned, not yet built, or never built. In the 95% pathway, the large dashed green circle on each island shows the extra renewable energy that island’s simulator pathway adds beyond current plans (sites not mapped). Niʻihau and Kahoʻolawe have no utility grid. Statewide shares weight each island by its 2025 generation before 2025, and use model totals after. Plant locations are approximate.
Island by island
Grid renewable share: official RPS basis (share of generation). All-energy self-reliance: island renewable electricity used, off-grid solar and island-made fuels as a share of all energy used, including road, marine, interisland aviation and industry (ESR framework). The 95% pathway is each island simulator’s “ESR pathway” preset, with EVs limited to what fleet turnover allows (Hawaii EV Association calculator method).
How fast can Hawaiʻi’s cars go electric?
Cars and trucks are the biggest piece of Hawaiʻi’s imported energy, and the slowest to change. Pick how fast EV sales climb to see how long the old gas cars take to cycle out.
Cars on Hawaiʻi’s roads
4 in 100 electric today— electric in 2045
Each square is 1% of the state’s 1,082,932 passenger vehicles (DBEDT, September 2026). Green: electric; terracotta: gas and diesel.
How fast do EV sales climb? Pick a curveSales rarely jump; they follow an S-curve, rising slowly, then quickly, then leveling off. Fine-tune it below; the dashed line in the chart shows it.
Where sales level off. Today ≈14% (HADA, 2025).
The year sales are halfway from today’s 14% to that long-run share. Think B.I.G.’s 95% pathway uses “Steady”: halfway by 2034, about 63% of new cars in 2035 and 91% in 2040.
When will 90% of cars on the road be electric?
—
How this works: about 1.08 million passenger vehicles, and about 50,000 new ones enter each year (46,753 new retail registrations in 2025, plus ex-rental cars) as the oldest retire, so a new car stays on the road about 22 years. Today EVs are 13.8% of new sales (HADA, 2025); the curve sets that share each year from 2027 on, rising along an S-shaped path from today’s 13.8% toward the long-run share. Today’s EVs, including many early Leafs, leave the road at about 6% a year, matching DBEDT’s net gain of 3,811. A rough guide, not a forecast. The island pathways on this site use the same fleet method. Calculator adapted from the Hawaii EV Association.
Method and sources
History: Hawaiian Electric historical RPS data by island (share of sales to 2021) and RPS reports (share of generation from 2022, Act 240); KIUC RPS filings and annual results. 2025 actuals: Big Island 57.3%, Kauaʻi 52.8%, Maui County 41.6%, Oʻahu 32.3%. Projections come from each island page’s model (current contracts, the 2026 IGP RFP for Oʻahu and Big Island, rooftop trend, slow EV uptake) and its ESR pathway preset; open an island’s “How this works” section for its assumptions and sources. Statewide history before 2025 weights each island by its 2025 generation, an approximation. Interisland flight paths are decorative.
Export your results
Save every island’s year-by-year results (current plans and the 95% pathway) and the history since 2005 as a spreadsheet, or a short PDF report. The map picture shows the year currently selected on the map’s slider.
